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February 16, 2021

2020/21 Brazil Safrinha Corn 11% Planted vs. 31% Average

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their February Crop Report released last week, Conab issued their first assessment of the 2020/21 safrinha corn acreage. They estimated the acreage at 14.35 million hectares (35.4 million acres), which was up 4.4% compared to last year. The average yield was estimated at 5,578 kg/ha (88.6 bu/ac) with a total production of 80.07 million tons. If these estimates verify, the safrinha corn crop would represent 75.9% of Brazil's total corn production.

The safrinha corn was 11% planted late last week compared to 31% average according to AgRural. The ideal planting window for safrinha corn closes about February 20th, but with only 11% of the safrinha corn planted, approximately 60% or more of the corn will be planted after the ideal planting window has closed. Given more wet weather in the forecast, the 2020/21 safrinha corn may end up being one of the latest planted in recent memory. If safrinha corn is planted March 15th, it would pollinate about May 15th and be mature about July 15th.

Mato Grosso Corn - Farmers in the state had planted 20.9% of their safrinha corn late last week compared to 63% last year and 47% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). The most advanced planting is in the northern region where 29% of the corn has been planted. The slowest planting is in the south-central region where 7.7% of the corn has been planted. This represents an advance of 12.6% for the week and the planting is now 42% behind last year.

Below is the graph from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) showing the safrinha corn planting pace in Mato Grosso? The crimson line is 2020/21, the red line is 2019/20, the dotted line is average, and the tan area is the maximum and minimum over the last 5 years.

map

Parana Corn - The full-season corn crop in Parana was 10% harvested earlier last week and the crop was rated 8% poor, 23% fair, and 76% good. The safrinha corn in Parana was 3% planted late last week compared to almost 30% average.

Rio Grande do Sul Corn - Emater reported that the full-season corn in Rio Grande do Sul was 12% in vegetative development, 13% pollinating, 20% filling grain, 16% mature, and 39% harvested as of late last week. The average price of corn in the state last week was R$ 79.30 per sack (approximately $6.80 per bushel).

Goias Corn - The window for safrinha corn planting in the state is going to be very narrow due to the delayed soybean harvest. Farmers are still expected to plant most of their intended safrinha corn due to the good corn prices and the fact that they have forward contracted 30-35% of their anticipated corn production. But, some of the latest harvested soybeans may be followed by grain sorghum instead of safrinha corn.