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January 14, 2020

Brazil Full-Season Corn Impacted by Dry Weather in S. Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rio Grande do Sul full-season corn - According to the president of the Corn Producers Association of Rio Grande do Sul (Apromilha), the hot and dry weather impacted especially the dryland corn in the state, but the total corn losses are not yet clear. The irrigated corn also suffered losses as well as the corn that will be used for silage.

In the municipality of Carazinho, which is located in northern Rio Grande do Sul, the extended period of dry weather has locked in corn yield losses of 50% on average with the most severe losses as high as 80%. The area did receive good rains over the weekend, but it came too late for a lot of the corn that was pollinating and filling grain during the hot and dry weather.

The Cooperative Technical Committee (RTC), which is composed of 22 cooperatives across the state, estimated that the corn losses in Rio Grande do Sul will average 33%.

Parana full-season corn - The full-season corn in Parana is 14% in vegetative development, 32% pollinating, 46% filling grain, and 8% mature. The crop is rated 10% average and 90% good.

Mato Grosso safrinha corn - There may be a few fields of safrinha corn being planted in the state, but most of the early harvested soybeans will be followed by a second crop of cotton that requires a longer growing season than corn.

Goias safrinha corn - The safrinha corn planting window is going to be very tight this year due to the delayed soybean planting, but corn prices are very encouraging. In the municipality of Jatai in southwestern Goias, the current corn price is in the range of R$ 45.00 per sack (approximately $5.10 per bushel) and the forward contract for safrinha corn is in the range of R$ 30.00 per sack (approximately $3.40 per bushel).

Conab - In their January Crop Report, Conab increased their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian corn production by 0.3 million tons to 98.71 million. If realized, it would represent a decrease of 1.3% compared to the 100.04 million tons produced last year. Conab estimated the full-season corn crop at 26.6 million tons, the safrinha corn crop at 70.9 million, and the third crop at 1.1 million. Conab is still using last year's safrinha corn acreage and they will issue a new acreage estimate in their February report.

WASDE - In the January WASDE Report, the USDA estimated the 2019/20 Brazilian corn production at 101.0 million tons, which was unchanged from December.