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January 20, 2021

Brazilian Farmers Intend to Plant all Their 2020/21 Safrinha Corn

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Reports out of Brazil indicate that most Brazilian farmers are going to plant all their intended safrinha corn acreage even though 15% to 30% of the corn will be planted after the ideal planting window has closed. Corn prices continue to be strong in Brazil and farmers are expected to make as much as 50% profit on their safrinha corn. With potential profits that high, they will be willing to risk lower yields by planting the corn later than normal.

The 2020/21 safrinha corn acreage could increase as much as 5-7% and if that happens along with an extended summer rainy season, there is a possibility that I will be increasing the corn estimate in the weeks ahead.

Rio Grande do Sul Full-Season Corn - The corn in Rio Grande do Sul was 96% planted last week with 21% germinating and in vegetative development, 16% pollinating, 24% filling grain, 24% maturing, and 15% harvested.

Parana Full-Season Corn - The full-season corn in Parana is 7% in vegetative development, 22% pollinating, 58% filling grain, and 13% maturing according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). The corn is rated 5% poor, 16% average, and 79% good. The safrinha corn planting is just getting underway, but it is still less than 1% planted.

Minas Gerais - The corn acreage in the state of Minas Gerais is expected to increase 1% and the yields are expected to increase 1.4% with the total corn production up 2.4% compared to last year.

Conab is estimating the Brazilian corn crop at 102.3 million tons, which is down 0.27 million from their December estimate, and the USDA is estimating the crop at 109.0 million tons, which is down 1.0 million from their December report.

Brazilian Corn Production

Crop2020/212019/20
 Million metric tons 
Full-season corn 20.025.6
Safrinha corn 80.0 75.0
Third corn crop (NE Brazil) 1.61.7
Total production 101.6 102.5