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May 20, 2021

Yields of Safrinha Corn in Goias will be down at least 20%

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Farmers in the state of Goias in central Brazil are very concerned about their safrinha corn production. Much of the corn was planted later than normal and the weather has been very dry since the corn was planted. In many areas of the state, it has been more than 30 days without a rain and there is only limited rainfall in the forecast. Statewide, it is estimated that the safrinha corn production will be down at least 20% from initial expectations.

The corn that was planted within the ideal window had acceptable early growth, but it is now under moisture stress as it is pollinating and entering grain fill. According to the president of Aprosoja-GO, farmers who had expected corn yields of 120 to 130 sacks per hectare (114 to 124 bu/ac) are now expecting yields in the range of 100 sacks per hectare (95.4 bu/ac).

It is estimated that 35% of the corn was planted after the ideal planting had closed and that is the corn that has suffered the most from a lack of moisture. The late planted corn had poor early growth and losses are estimated at 50% with some fields as high as 100% loss. The forecast is calling for some light and scattered showers over the next week, but probably not enough to reverse the overall dry trend.

Farmers are being advised to be pay close attention to increased pest pressures especially from corn leaf hoppers, but some farmers are hesitant to spend more money on a crop that is expected to be very disappointing. With the delayed planting, the corn harvest in Goias is now expected to start in late June or early July.

Farmers in Goias have forward contracted aproximately 30% of the anticipated corn production, but they are now hesitant to contract any more before they are more confident of their production.