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May 6, 2021

Imea Lowers Safrinha Corn Yield in Mato Grosso

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) lowered their estimate of the statewide safrinha corn yield from 102.51 sacks per hectare (97.7 bu/ac) to 101.42 sacks per hectare (96.7 bu/ac) due to dryer than normal conditions in parts of the state. Imea is now estimating the safrinha corn production in the state at 34.6 million tons, which is 2.3% below what was produced in 2019/20. Mato Grosso is the largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil accounting for approximately 45% of Brazil's production.

The state of Mato Grosso has had the best weather thus far for safrinha corn especially northern and western Mato Grosso, but even in Mato Grosso, the weather has been variable. Take for example the municipality of Sorriso, which is the largest safrinha corn producing municipality in Brazil. The corn in Sorriso was planted 20-30 days later than normal with 40% of the corn planted after the ideal window had closed.

The rainfall distribution has been very irregular with one part of the municipality receiving over an inch of rainfall with other areas staying dry. Up until last weekend, many areas had gone 20-30 days without rain. Farmers had expected yields in the range of 100 sacks per hectare (95.4 bu/ac), but many farmers are now expecting lower yields. In some areas of the state, it has been more than 35 days since the last rain and corn losses are estimated in the range of 20% or more.

The forecast is for below normal rainfall for the next several weeks in for Mato Grosso, so the production estimates from Imea could move lower.