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November 10, 2020

Brazil's 2020/21 Safrinha Corn Will be Planted Later Than Normal

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2020/21 Brazilian corn production could be in trouble for two reasons. The first and most important reason is the fact that the safrinha corn is going to be planted later than normal almost everywhere in Brazil. The safrinha corn crop will need good rains to continue through the month of May in order to achieve good yields.

The second reason is the fact that the full-season corn in southern Brazil has been under various degrees of moisture stress for several weeks. As I write this, there are rains falling across southern Brazil, but the forecast for next week is generally dry again. The bottom line is that the full-season corn is getting off to a problematic start.

Rio Grande do Sul Full-Season Corn - Emater reported late last week that 75% of the full-season corn in Rio Grande do Sul had been planted compared to 78% last year and 74% average. This represented an advance of only 3% for the week because corn planting only advanced in localized areas. The full-season corn is 87% germinating and vegetative development, 12% pollinating, and 1% filling grain. The average price of corn last week in the state increased 5.8% to R$ 73.16 per sack (approximately $6.25 per bushel).

Parana Full-Season Corn - The Department of Rural Economics in the State of Parana (Deral) reported that 92% of the full-season corn in the state had been planted as of earlier last week. The crop is 10% germinating, 89% in vegetative development, and 1% pollinating and the corn is rated 2% poor, 17% average, and 81% good.

Mato Grosso Safrinha Corn - The delayed start to soybean planting in Mato Grosso is going to push more of the safrinha corn to be planted outside the ideal planting window with the potential for lower yields. According to Aprosoja/MT, approximately 20% of the safrinha corn in the state will be planted after the ideal planting window closes at the end of February.

In 2018/19, virtually all the corn was planted within the ideal window and the statewide yield was a record of 110.9 sacks per hectare (105.7 bu/ac). The corn was planted later In 2017/18 and the yield ended up being 99.5 sacks per hectare (94.9 bu/ac). I think there will be problems with the safrinha corn yields, we just don't know how much