Jul 16, 2024
2023/24 Brazil Safrinha Corn 74% Harvested, Record Fast
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 116.0 million tons and I have a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.
In their July Crop Report, Conab increased their estimate of the 2023/24 Brazil corn crop by 1,71 million tons to 115.85 million. Brazil's corn production is now estimated at 115.85 million tons, which is up 1.71 million from last month. Even with the increase, corn production in Brazil in 2023/24 is down 12.2% or 16.0 million tons compared to 131.89 million produced I 2022/23.
Conab is now estimating the safrinha corn crop at 90.00 million tons, which is up 1.89 million compared to a month earlier. The safrinha corn acreage was increased 47,000 hectares (116,090 acres) compared to a month earlier to 16.19 million hectares (39.9 million acres). Even with the increase, the safrinha acreage is still down 5.8% compared to last year. The safrinha yield is now 5,556 kg/ha (88.3 bu/ac), which is up 1.6 bushels from last month.
Conab is estimating Brazil's first corn crop at 23.44 million tons and the third corn crop is estimated at 2.40 million tons. Brazil's first corn crop now represents 20.2% of the total corn crop with the safrinha representing 77.6% and the third crop representing 2.0%.
In the July WASDE Report, the USDA left the 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate unchanged at 122.0 million tons.
The safrinha corn in Brazil was 74% harvested as of late last week compared to 36% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 10% for the week and the safrinha harvest continues at a record fast pace. The harvest is nearing completion in parts of Mato Grosso while rainfall last week slowed the harvest in Parana, Sao Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Even with the slowdown, the harvest pace in those three states is still ahead of average.
Mato Grosso - The safrinha harvest in Mato Grosso is 89.9% compared to 68.2% last year and 73.4% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 13.6% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in western Mato Grosso where 95% of the corn has been harvested. The slowest harvest is in the southeastern part of the state with 76% harvested.
Below is the safrinha corn harvest progress in Mato Grosso for July 12, 2024 from IMEA.
Parana - The safrinha corn in Parana was approximately 66% harvested as of earlier last week according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). This is a record fast harvest pace for the month of July. The previous record was the 2018-19 growing season when 65% of the safrinha corn had been harvested by the end of July. Farmers in Parana will start planting their 2024/25 corn during the month of August if the weather cooperates.
Mato Grosso do Sul - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso do Sul was 30% harvested as of late last week according to the Agriculture & Livestock Federation of Mato Grosso do Sul (Famasul) with highly variable yields depending on location. In the southern part of the state, corn yields range from 10-115 sacks per hectare (9.5 to 110 bu/ac), in central regions, the corn yields range from 30-115 sacks per hectare (28.6 to 110 bu/ac), and in northern regions, the corn yields range from 80-170 sacks per hectare (76-162 bu/ac).
Famasul rates the corn remaining in the field at 33.8% poor, 25.7% average, and 40.5% good. Famasul's statewide safrinha corn yield is 86.3 sacks per hectare (82.3 bu/ac), which is down 14.2% compared to last year.