Jan 21, 2025
2024/25 Argentina Soybean Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 51.0 Million
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
After a hot and dry start last week, some rain did move into central and southern Argentina over the weekend with northern areas remaining mostly dry. Conditions going forward should be marginally wetter and cooler across the region compared to last week. However, above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall will continue to stress crop growth.
The percentage of the soybeans rated good/excellent declined 17% last week to 32%. That is a huge decline for one week and it is probably due to a lot of soybeans wilting and exposing the underside of the leaves that are lighter in color and easily visible from the highway. Approximately 20% of the soybeans are flowering and setting pods, so they could still recuperate if they received persistent good rainfall going forward, unfortunately that is not guaranteed. Therefore, I decided to trim the soybean estimate another 1.0 million tons this week to 51.0 million.
Not all the double crop soybeans have been planted due to dry conditions and some of the double crop soybeans in the southern core region have not received any rain since germination and they may be a complete loss if rain is not received soon. There are reports of poor plant populations for some of the double crop soybeans especially in the southern core region (northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe), which is the driest part of Argentina. The southern core region is generally the most productive region of the country.
The Rosario Grain Exchange said last week that the 2024/25 Argentina soybean production would be below 53.0 million tons, but they did not give a new estimate.
Soybeans in Argentina were 98.2% planted as of late last week with approximately 340,000 hectares left to be planted in far northern Argentina. Below is the soybean planting progress in Argentina for January 15, 2025 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
Soybeans in Argentina were rated 21% poor/very poor, 47% fair, and 32% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage is down 17% from the prior week. Soil moisture for soybeans is rated 40% short/very short and 60% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is down 17% from the prior week. Below is the soybean rating in Argentina for January 15, 2025 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2024/25 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Dec 11, 2024 | 1 (4) | 65 (30) | 6 (13) | 94 (86) |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 (3) | 66 (37) | 5 (6) | 95 (91) |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 4 (3) | 58 (45) | 12 (10) | 88 (90) |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 4 (3) | 58 (50) | 19 (6) | 81 (92) |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 8 (1) | 49 (55) | 23 (7) | 77 (90) |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 21 (9) | 32 (40) | 40 (8) | 60 (92) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages