Feb 06, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Safrinha Corn 9% Planted vs. 27% Last Year
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Brazil's safrinha corn was 9% planted as of late last week compared to 27% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 6.8% for the week. Mato Grosso is by far the largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil (see table below) and 6.2% of the safrinha corn was planted in the state compared to 28.6% last year according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
The ideal planting window for safrinha corn in central Brazil closes about February 20th and the latest the corn can be planted is March 10th to the 15th. To avoid potential yield losses, ideally you would like to see at least 85% of the safrinha corn planted in Mato Grosso by March 1st. To reach that percentage this year, farmers in Mato Grosso would need to average 20% planted per week, which is highly unlikely.
Therefore, the 2024/25 Brazil corn estimate was lowered 2.0 million tons to 123.0 million due to the potential for delayed planting of the safrinha corn. There will probably be 30-40% or more of the safrinha corn planted after the ideal window is closed. The eventual yield of the late planted safrinha corn will depend on when the summer rainy season ends, which at this point, is undetermined.
Mato Grosso - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) reported that 6.2% of the safrinha corn in the state had been planted as of late last week compared to 28.6% last year and 22.2% average. This represents an advance of 5.1% for the week. The mid-north region is the most advanced with 8.7% of the corn panted compared to 41.6% last year. Below is the safrinha corn planting pace in Mato Grosso for January 31, 2025 from Imea.
Parana - As of earlier last week, the safrinha corn in Parana was 9% planted and rated 4% average and 96% good. The first corn crop in Parana was 41% filling grain, 56% maturing and rated 7% average and 93% good.
Conab is currently conducting field evaluations of the safrinha corn and they will publish their first "official" estimate of the 2024/25 safrinha corn production in their February Crop Report which will be issued on February 13, 2025. The safrinha corn represents 75-80% of Brazil's total corn production.