Feb 12, 2025
2024/25 Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 49.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rainfall last week favored a band in central Argentina including northern Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba, southern Santa Fe, and southern Entre Rios. Outside the narrow band of rain, it remained mostly dry in southern and northern Argentina. Over the weekend there were some spotty showers across central and southern areas. The forecast for this week is calling for showers across central Argentina with a much greater chance of rainfall across central and northern areas next week.
The heart of the soybean production received rain last week and even though it covered approximately 40% of the total soybean acreage, that area represents approximately 60% of the total production. The rain helped the early planted soybeans as they are filling pods and the double crop soybeans as they are starting to flower. Soybeans in Argentina are 68% flowering, 36% setting pods, and 8% filling pods.
The 2024/25 Argentina soybean estimate was left unchanged this week due to somewhat improved soil moisture last week and the potential for more improvements this week and especially next week. Soybeans are very resilient and if the rainfall next week verifies, it could "stop the bleeding" and stabilize the crop all be it at a lower level.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left the soybean estimate unchanged last week at 49.6 million tons. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimated that the rain last week benefited 60% of Argentina's soybean production and where the rain fell, it stopped the deterioration of the soybean crop at least for now.
Soybeans in Argentina were rated 32% poor/very poor, 51% fair, and 17% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage is down 3% from the prior week. Soil moisture for corn is 36% short/very short and 64% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is up 6% from the prior week. Below is the soybean rating in Argentina for February 5, 2025 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2024/25 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 4 (3) | 58 (50) | 19 (6) | 81 (92) |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 8 (1) | 49 (55) | 23 (7) | 77 (90) |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 21 (9) | 32 (40) | 40 (8) | 60 (92) |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 28 (14) | 22 (34) | 45 (20) | 55 (80) |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 28 (2) | 20 (29) | 42 (40) | 58 (60) |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 32 (18) | 17 (31) | 36 (28) | 64 (72) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages